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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/27 10:50

   Soybeans Up Double Digits Midday Tuesday

   Corn is 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 11 to 12 cents higher and wheat is 
flat to 10 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 205 points. The U.S. 
Dollar Index is 0.28 lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are 
mixed with crude down $0.20. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are 
mixed with gold up $1.50.


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher with support from soybeans, Brazil 
importing corn from Argentina and conditions fading slightly. Ethanol margins 
look stable to start the week with energies moving more sideways after last 
week's volatility and the rebound in corn limiting gains. Brazil will continue 
to move along with the end of the second crop season, with frost issues still 
being watched as they reported book significant amounts of cargos from 
Argentina, while near-term weather looks more mixed into August for the U.S. 
Corn basis has remained flat with cash inverses likely to see more pressure as 
wheat and southern sorghum start to become available to feed. Weekly crop 
progress showed conditions down 1% to 64% good to excellent and 10% poor to 
very poor; 79% silking versus 73% on average, and 18% in the dough versus 17% 
on average. On the September contract, trade tested the 20-day at $5.60 before 
fading with further support at the lower Bollinger band at $5.22.


   Soybeans are 11 to 13 cents higher at midday with trade finding buying on a 
further condition decline and continued mixed weather coming forward with trade 
still needing meal to rally to build greater support. Meal is $6.00 to $7.00 
higher and oil is 0.15 cent to 0.25 cent lower. The weather pattern is warmer 
and drier short term with more rain coverage in the extended forecast for many. 
South America will continue to ship soybeans while the run in canola values 
turn more sideways potentially limiting oil upside short term. Basis levels 
have been flat to weaker in recent days. Weekly crop progress showed 76% 
blooming versus 71% on average, with 42% setting pods versus 36% on average at 
58% good to excellent, down 2%, with 12% poor to very poor. On the September 
soybean chart, resistance is at the 20-day at $13.64, which we are above at 
midday, with the upper Bollinger Band at $14.33.


   Wheat trade is flat to 10 cents higher with Minneapolis wheat leading the 
charge after the choppy start to the week as winter wheat harvest winds down 
and spring wheat starts up. Harvest will continue to expand across Europe and 
the Black Sea with mixed results so far, while the dollar fades further after 
the losses Monday, which could add support if sustained. KC holds at 33-cent 
discount to Chicago widening Tuesday with Minneapolis at a 208-cent premium 
moving sideways at these levels. Winter wheat harvest is 84% complete versus 
81% on average while spring wheat conditions down another 3% to 8% good to 
excellent and 66% poor to very poor with 3% harvested versus 2% on average. KC 
September on the chart has support at the 20-day at $6.29 with resistance the 
upper Bollinger Band at $6.82.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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