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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/20 11:25

   Grains Mixed at Midday

    Overnight gains fade again with wheat remaining the downside leader.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   Corn is 1 cent lower, soybeans are 4 cents lower, and wheat is 5 to 11 cents 
lower at midday. Outside markets are mostly positive.


   Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade trying to hold gains amid 
spillover selling pressure from soybeans and wheat. The second crop in Brazil 
is being planted in good condition for now with planting heading past the 
halfway point with early rains looking to be good for germination. The energy 
complex remains near the upper end of the range, with ethanol futures still 
struggling to extend into the mid $1.30 range, with the weekly report delayed 
until tomorrow. Corn basis should firm again with more weather disruptions. On 
the March chart trade has support at the recent $3.68 1/2 low, the lower 
Bollinger Band at $3.70 7/8, with more notable chart resistance clustered at 
$3.76-$3.78. The trading range has been tight but we are near a 3-month low. 


   Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents lower at midday with selling returning 
overnight after some early buying with little concrete fresh news. Meal is $1 
to $2 lower and oil is flat to 10 points lower. South America weather should 
maintain the recent pattern in the coming days with Brazil harvest moving along 
and drier weather in Argentina. Crush margins remain strong with meal holding 
$300 a ton or better still. Trade talks will continue in the US this week with 
some progress scored this week according to most sources and the March 1 
deadline looming, although there is more talk of an extension. On the March 
chart resistance is now the moving averages clustered at $9.13-9.15 which we 
just below, with support at the lows from today at $8.93 with oversold 
conditions as well.


   Wheat trade failed to sustain early buying again with trade 4 to 12 cents 
lower with spread trade starting to unwind vs. Chicago today. The US has seen 
better export business lately, but world prices have followed the US selloff 
with some Black Sea and French tenders securing business to Egypt today, with 
selling prices $20 a ton lower than last time. The dollar reversed yesterday 
with trade looking to see if it becomes a multiday thing with Fed guidance 
today. Cold weather is expected to keep some stress on the plains in the near 
term with winter wanting to hang around. On the March KC chart support is low 
at $4.49 3/4 with resistance the 10-day at $4.91.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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