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DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/21 10:54
Corn Futures Higher at Midday; Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are 4
to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 4 to 7 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are 4
to 6 cents lower; wheat futures are 4 to 7 cents lower. The U.S. stock market
is sharply lower with the S&P 140 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is 85
points lower. The interest rate products are mixed. Energy trade is sharply
lower with crude 1.80 lower and natural gas .16 lower. Livestock trade is
mixed. Precious metals are sharply higher with gold up 101.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with firmer spread action as
we continue to hold the upper end of the range, although we have pulled back a
little from the early gains. Ethanol margins will continue to struggle with
unleaded values depressing blending margins even as spring demand should pick
up. Planting will likely slow with the weekend rains. Weekly progress is likely
to remain near the 5-year average along with emergence when released Monday
afternoon. Weekly export inspections remained strong at 1.703 million metric
tons (mmt), keeping year-to-date pace at 129%. Basis should remain fairly flat
in the short-term. Double-crop weather in Brazil should continue in line with
recent weeks limiting market influence. On the May chart, the 20-day moving
average at $4.68 is support with the upper Bollinger Band at $4.94 as
resistance.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 4 to 6 cents lower with early gains fading again as
outside market spillover picks up with products turning negative. Meal is 1.50
to 2.50 lower and oil is 5 to 15 points lower. South American weather allows
for harvest pressure to keep easing as it moves forward with the cheaper dollar
likely to keep support in place. Early planting should continue around the
rains in the U.S. with weekly crop progress likely to be just ahead of the
5-year average. Weekly export inspections held on at 550,924 metric tons (mt),
keeping pace at 111% of last year. Basis will likely remain sideways into the
end of the month. On the May chart, support is the 20-day moving average at
$10.18, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $10.57 the next round up.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 4 to 7 cents lower at midday with the cheaper dollar
adding support while recent rains and outside market negativity pulls action
back from the resistance levels touched overnight. The hard red wheat will need
better moisture to the west but the eastern growing areas should keep
conditions steady on the weekly report with development in line with the 5-year
average. MATIF wheat is closed for Easter Monday after gains on Friday. Weekly
export inspections were solid at 510,250 mt with year-to-date pace at 114% of
last year. On the KC May chart, resistance is the 20-day moving average at
$5.62, which we tested overnight before pulling back; the next level of support
is the Lower Bollinger Band at $5.49.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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