Corn and soybean futures are sharply lower this morning as improved Midwest weather forecasts and easing Middle East tensions pressure the market. Spreads are firmer, with CU/CZ narrowing to -22 ¾ and SQ/SX firming 2 cents to -3 ½. Crude oil futures are down roughly $5.30/barrel this morning.
The U.S. and Iran have reportedly paused military action over the past several days and are expected to begin negotiations. While no formal ceasefire or agreement is in place, optimism surrounding diplomatic progress has weighed on energy markets. Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited.
Weather forecasts have turned more favorable, with above-normal rain chances across much of the Corn Belt over the next week, particularly in Iowa and Illinois. Parts of the western Plains are also expected to pick up needed moisture, including eastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota. Locally, a significant amount of fungicide has been applied over the past couple of weeks, and a rain would be welcomed. After this weekend’s heat and humidity, corn and beans could certainly use it.
Corn and soybean basis turned more defensive last week as the rally in futures encouraged additional producer selling. If futures continue to correct lower, basis could find some support this week. Harvest is also set to begin soon across the Delta and Southeast, with crops advancing quickly due to the recent heat.
Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money added to long positions in both corn and soybeans last week. Funds were buyers of nearly 50,000 corn contracts, with current estimates putting the net long position around 130,000 contracts. Based on this morning’s price action, it certainly feels like some of that length is heading for the exits.