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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/16 12:00
Weaker Tones Dominate the Livestock Complex on Tuesday
With little help from the market's fundamentals, all three of the livestock
markets are trading lower into midday Tuesday.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's been a mostly lower-waning morning for the livestock complex as most of
the contracts are trading lower into midday Tuesday. More than anything,
traders simply don't seem confident enough to push the contracts higher in any
of the three livestock markets, and there's currently not enough fundamental
support to help them do so. December corn is up 6 1/4 cents per bushel and
December soybean meal is up $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down
119.60 points and the NASDAQ is down 15.46 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
It's been a lower-trending day thus far for the live cattle complex as the
market continues to struggle to find what direction is best for the near term.
It's been a back-and-forth, whiplash kind of trade for the live cattle complex
since Friday when the contracts broke sharply lower, but then on Monday,
traders aggressively pushed the contracts higher, and now the contracts are
somewhere in between the two mindsets. The market seems to be at odds with
itself as traders know that the long-term fundamentals of the market are
strong, but at the same time, it's fully expected that boxed beef prices will
continue to wane in the upcoming weeks and that fed cash cattle prices could
trade lower as well until holiday demand sees retailers more aggressive again.
Which is why traders would like to support the complex, but are having a
difficult time doing so confidently. October live cattle are down $1.95 at
$232.65, December live cattle are down $1.75 at $234.52 and February live
cattle are down $1.25 at $236.55. No developments have surfaced in the fed cash
cattle complex yet, and won't likely until Wednesday at the earliest.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.70 ($395.83) and select down
$2.86 ($375.94) with a movement of 84 loads (47.20 loads of choice, 10.78 loads
of select, 7.53 loads of trim and 18.06 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Following in the live cattle market's footsteps, the feeder cattle contracts
are also trading lower. September feeders are down $0.85 at $357.95, October
feeders are down $1.10 at $353.40 and November feeders are down $2.05 at
$348.20. One notable trend that's surfacing in sales across the countryside is
that now, with the fall run fully underway, calves that are either unvaccinated
or unweaned are trading notably lower than those that have been. And with
buyers already paying substantially more for calves this year than in years
past, it's easy to understand why they can't afford to take much of a risk on
those cattle when their initial input price is so high.
LEAN HOGS :
The lean hog complex is trading mixed into Tuesday's noon hour as the market
simply doesn't seem to possess enough support right now to push beyond its
current resistance levels. October lean hogs are down $0.07 at $97.45, December
lean hogs are down $0.72 a $88.12 and February lean hogs are down $0.30 at
$90.15. Again, this morning, pork cutout values are also lower, which has been
the theme lately of mixed consumer demand, which consequently isn't empowering
the futures complex.
The projected lean hog index for 9/15/2025 is down $0.14 at $106.00 and the
actual index for 9/12/2025 is steady at $106.14. Hog prices on the Daily Direct
Morning Hog Report average $105.97, ranging from $102.00 to $108.00 on 5,870
head and a five-day rolling average of $106.49. Pork cutouts values total
220.70 loads with 191.30 loads of pork cuts and 29.39 loads of trim. Pork
cutout values: down $2.31, $111.76.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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